The Economic Times
Election 2014: The big battle is now between BJP’s Narendra Modi and AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal
Dec 9th
A spectre is haunting BJP: the Modi effect may be dented by the Kejriwal effect, spoiling BJP’s chances of leading a stable government after the 2014 election. BJP has done well in the four state assembly elections, but Aam Aadmi Party has done even better. Starting from scratch, it has captured almost a third of More >
BJP’s rhetoric and the behaviour of its CMs show no appetite for radical reforms
Dec 4th
Despite dismal GDP growth, the stock markets are buoyant. Market analysts hope that a BJP-led coalition will be elected in 2014, liberalising policies and boosting economic growth. These hopes are grossly inflated. FirstPost editor R Jagannathan says, aptly, that Indian political parties have a consensus on bad ideas. A BJP-led coalition will be better than More >
There’s a Modi effect, but not a Modi wave
Dec 1st
Shortly after the Gujarat state election, Swaminomics argued that Narendra Modi would not be able to make this a launching pad for the prime ministership. I need to qualify that judgement heavily after a recent tour of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to cover the state Assembly campaigns. When asked what the main issues were in More >
States need to reform fast to speed up projects, growth
Nov 20th
With GDP growth having halved from over 9% in 2010-11 to just 4.5% today, many observers are demanding more reforms from New Delhi. Finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram replies that a new wave of reforms is indeed being implemented. The central Cabinet has cleared more than Rs 3 lakh crore worth of projects. Yet, industrial growth More >
Poverty falls fast for dalits and Muslims
Nov 3rd
During the period of fast economic growth in the 2000s, how did poor minorities fare? Some heartening answers have been provided in a Columbia University paper by Panagariya and More (Poverty by Social Religious and Economic groups in India and its Largest States, 1993-94 to 2011-12). Poverty has declined much faster for dalits and tribals More >
Industrial growth likely to be much higher than estimates, suggests IIP data
Oct 23rd
India’s industrial production and GDP have been plunging for three years. But one person believes that major revisions are going to make the data look much better. Pronab Sen, former chief statistician, thinks that the current GDP growth estimate of 5% for 2012-13 may be way short of reality, and revisions could take it above More >
Obama shows why India must not seek a presidential system
Oct 13th
Narendra Modi’s rise owes much to his image as a decisive, efficient go-getter. A recent magazine poll showed 86% of new voters wanting an “authoritative and decisive” prime minister. They hate the corrupt bumbling and drift of the UPA government. For the same reason, many Indians favour a presidential system of government, to ensure decisive More >
End of US individualism: Rise in social spending will make US similar to welfarist Europe and Japan
Oct 9th
Newspapers carry alarmist headlines about the partial shutdown of the US government because of a budget impasse over Obamacare. Yet, the markets have moved only slightly. Veteran traders yawn with amusement: they know the US has had such shutdowns before, and none lasted long or inflicted significant damage. Yet, this is not just one more More >
Pakistan shows why military ultimately fails to govern
Sep 25th
Indians don’t realise how exceptional they are in never even thinking about the army when discussing politics. In many developing nations, the army casts a long shadow on politics even when it does not rule directly. Pakistan is a classic example. Fakir S Aijazuddin has written a slim volume From a Minister’s Personal Journal about More >
Clearing projects is not the Cabinet’s job
Sep 22nd
The rupee has bounced back, the stock market has soared, and finance minister Chidambaram is smiling again. This will not last, because there’s no clear strategy to remedy the economy’s structural weaknesses. One big structural problem is the creation of ever more laws, rules and regulations. Every new rule has admirable aims like inclusivity, environmental More >
Reforms: clear the clutter
Sep 15th
Economic reforms should be clear and simple, not cluttered with endless terms and conditions. This has long been forgotten by the UPA government, which tries desperately to ensure that any change satisfies several vote banks simultaneously, supposedly to ensure inclusion. This approach clutters even the most desirable changes (like the land acquisition bill) with loads More >
Bills won’t win polls
Sep 8th
The Congress party is feeling good after passing its two new bills on food security and land acquisition in Parliament. It believes it has occupied the moral high ground, and left the BJP making vague, unconvincing objections. The Congress hopes these bills will prove vote winners in the general election next May. These are delusions More >
Why the rupee can keep falling
Sep 1st
People ask me, will the exchange rate go to Rs 70 to the dollar? I reply, why not Rs 80? Indian analysts are in denial. They don’t dare face up to the full consequences of the global financial hurricane originating in the US. This will keep blowing for 12-18 months. To revive the US economy, More >
Get ready for another Asian Financial Crisis
Aug 29th
Make no mistake, a second Asian Financial Crisis is on its way. This storm will not blow over soon. It originated in the US, when the Fed proposed to taper and end quantitative easing. The frightening thing is that this will happen in stages over the next 12-18 months, and each turn of the liquidity More >
Food Security Bill won’t eliminate hunger, will not help win elections and won’t add to high spending
Aug 28th
The Lok Sabha has passed the Food Security Bill. Sonia Gandhi claims it will save the needy from hunger and malnutrition. The BJP claims she is merely buying votes in the coming general election. Critics claim the Bill will strain the exchequer unbearably. Wrong, wrong and wrong again. This farcical exercise will not improve food More >
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