India is currently the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Hurrah. But the combined fiscal deficit of the Centre and states exceeds 10% of GDP, horrendously high by international standards. High fiscal deficits can spur high growth for some time, but then […]
A global recession will pose enormous fiscal challenges. India must be prepared Read More »
There is not the slightest chance that the world has a hard landing and India does not. We are only 7% of the global economy; the idea that we will stand out is a fantasy to me,” says Swaminathan Aiyar,
Deeper US recession spells big trouble for India, says Swaminathan Aiyar Read More »
Two months ago, I wrote in these columns of how commodity prices had shot up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, but then receded considerably by mid-May. I said the good news was that inflation had probably peaked, while
Crashing food prices ease fears of starvation but not of a market crisis Read More »
The latest projections of the IMF, even with the downward revisions is still showing India as being the fastest growing economy. When everybody else is going down, let us not pretend that we can become a 10% economy. If we
Rupee nearing 80? Swaminathan Aiyar on why we shouldn’t worry too much Read More »
Paul Samuelson once said wryly that economists had predicted nine of the last five recessions. In other words, they over-predicted at least half the time. Cynics will say that, in truth, economists would kill for even this level of accuracy.
Why US is no longer heading for a recession but is actually in a recession Read More »
In earlier columns, I have highlighted the sad slump in India’s global rankings on various measures of democracy, freedom and human rights. Economic trends have been muddied by an unexplained slump – part of a global slump – in 2019-20,
So, how well has India’s relative performance been under the Modi government? Read More »
The World Bank has brought down India’s growth projection from 8.5% to 7.5%. I would say it might be even lower as these things are beyond our control, the war is not under our control. If the Russia-Ukraine war continues
The RBI raised the policy repo rate by 50 basis points taking the cumulative increase to a steep 90 basis points in two consecutive months. The ballooning inflation, mostly fueled by global factors, has prompted central banks world over to
Will monetary tightening help fix India’s inflation problem? Swaminathan Aiyar explains Read More »
India celebrated its 50th anniversary of independence in 1997 by showing that a billion people could overcome multiple barriers of language, religion, caste, ethnicity, and cultural traditions to form a glorious whole upholding democratic values and human rights. As we
Searching for ‘historical truth’? Don’t be selective Read More »
“Right now, the problem of inflation cannot easily be solved by tightening the interest rates. It can be tightened in some cases, the government is trying to do it in the case of wheat by putting an export ban,” says
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