Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar

Nirmala Sitharaman is right to gamble on growth. But she should know it’s a gamble

February 12, 2022

Budget 2022: Highlights Will the ghost of Pranab Mukherjee come back to haunt Nirmala Sitharaman? She has opted for a high fiscal deficit for the third time in a row to keep stimulating an economy still recovering from Covid. This has similarities with Mukherjee\’s economic stimulus when he became finance minister after the Great Recession. […]

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FM could privatise 1% at a time

February 7, 2022

The Budget has been widely praised for avoiding populist freebies before the coming state elections and focusing instead on a big investment thrust to accelerate economic growth and lift all boats. The black spot is the failure of privatisation this year and diminished hope for the future. The current privatisation approach is a proven disaster.

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Economic Survey 2021-22: India is ready for strong, agile FY23

January 31, 2022

This is, by design, a ‘boring’ Economic Survey. Anybody seeking clues to the budget proposals in the Survey 2021-22 will be disappointed. Having gone through several changes in the last two decades, the Survey has reverted to an earlier avatar in which it looks only at the past, anxious not to give a single hint

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Don’t oppose Bose statue, re-claim him from BJP

January 30, 2022

I have always wanted the statue of King George on Rajpath to be replaced by one of Mahatma Gandhi, Father of the Nation. But now the BJP has decided to install a statue of Subhas Chandra Bose. This is a naked attempt by the BJP — which did not have a single prominent leader in

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In a market so full of madness, a big global stock market crash is coming

January 27, 2022

Global stock markets will suffer a major crash within the next year. There. I\’ve said it without hedging or qualification. I could have said something more cautious like, \’The chances of a stock market crash have increased considerably.\’ Or, \’The manic investment in stocks that have never made a profit is going to end.\’ Or

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Do Indian voters really prefer rule by a strongman?

January 23, 2022

Readers may be horrified that a new survey of YouGov, Mint a and CPR suggests that 51% of Indians are disillusioned with democracy and would prefer rule by a strongman, General or technocrat. However, be careful in interpreting these finding. Liberals might think the survey reflects the rise of Hindutva. Not so. The anti-democracy trend

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Politics will dominate this year’s budget

January 18, 2022

Last year, India got an economist\’s budget. But with five states going to the polls soon after the Budget, radical reform is unlikely this time. An “election budget” is typically one before a general election, high on populism and low on radical reforms states going to the polls soon after the Budget, radical reform is

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A new book on the Modi years mixes actuality with amnesia

January 12, 2022

Aakar Patel, former head of Amnesty International in India, has savaged the seven years of Narendra Modi\’s rule in his latest book, Price of the Modi Years. Backed by considerable research, it has more credibility than other rhetorical denunciations of BJP rule. The book has a clever cover of 16 charts of India\’s performance measured

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Why poll panel should return to single-day voting

January 10, 2022

Covid cases are rising exponentially in India with the third wave causing one lakh infections per day. The US has crossed one million cases per day, and India is likely to exceed that soon. Should upcoming elections in five states led by Uttar Pradesh have been postponed because of Omicron? No, the Election Commission is

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High growth, high risk: Growth will be brisk but major challenges range from inflation to BJP losing nerve on reforms

January 3, 2022

The International Monetary Fund has projected India’s GDP growth at 9.5% in 2021 and 8.5% in 2022, making it the fastest-growing economy in the world. Deepak Parekh of HDFC, doyen of the private sector, says he is more optimistic than he has been for 50 years. IMF believes fast growth in 2021 is not a

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