Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar

Industrial commodity prices are dropping, not rising any more, due to recession

May 20, 2022

Inflation has soared to new heights, with the April consumer price index (CPI) showing prices shooting up 7.8%. Wholesale price inflation in March was a whopping 14.5%. Prices were already rising at the start of 2022, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February added fuel to the fire. Black Sea exports were blockaded, […]

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How rise of low-cost guerilla media aids press freedom

May 17, 2022

India’s position has fallen from 142 to 150 out of 180 countries in the World Press Freedom Index for 2022 of Reporters Without Borders. India’s position on the Index was a terrible 140 even before the BJP came to office in 2014, so media harassment is hardly new; but it does seem to have got

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A debt typhoon is set to engulf the world, and India won’t escape unscathed

May 4, 2022

Many Indians smirk at the ousting of Imran Khan as prime minister in Pakistan, and the coming dismissal of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as president in Sri Lanka. Both have been hit by debt crises. The smile will soon be wiped off all smirking faces because the debt typhoon lashing our neighbours is engulfing the world, and

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US wants a reboot of World Bank but it’s on wrong track

May 3, 2022

At the spring meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Deputy Secretary of State Daleep Singh called for a total overhaul of the two institutions. Daleep Singh said the Bank was too conservative in lending because it was obsessed with maintaining its AAA rating for borrowing from

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High inflation is going to just get higher

April 25, 2022

The Wholesale Price Index has been in double digits for almost a year and has just skyrocketed to a horrendous 14.5%. Tighten your belts. We are heading for the worst inflation in a long time. This will hit purchasing power, economic growth and the stock markets. Interest rates will soar, with especially damaging effects on

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India can sustain ‘miracle’ GDP growth of 7%. There is only one rider

April 22, 2022

GDP growth crashed to just 3.7% in the pre-Covid year 2019-20. In the preceding two decades, GDP growth averaged over 7% (save in the Great Recession of 2008-09). Pessimists such as Shankar Acharya note that GDP growth slowed steadily from 2016-17 onward, and the sharp fall in 2019-20 simply confirmed the emergence of a new

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Why Ukraine war will cast a shadow on BJP prospects in Gujarat

April 18, 2022

Covid and the Ukraine war have created high inflation and recessionary trends with political consequences across the globe. Inflation of 13.7% facilitate Imran Khan’s ouster in Pakistan. An 18% inflation rate may oust Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka. Many African and Latin American countries are staring down an abyss. India is better placed than most

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Why reservation will not solve India’s job crisis

April 11, 2022

A study by Surjit Bhalla, Arvind Virmani and Karan Bhasin estimates that extreme poverty — defined by the World Bank as consumption below $1.90 per day per person — has virtually disappeared in India. India’s poverty line is virtually identical to the Bank’s. The new study adapts a Bank methodology. It concludes that the poverty

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Western hypocrisy and the impracticability of a tribunal to try Russia

April 9, 2022

Smartphones and the internet have made it possible as never before to transmit the horrors of war from Ukraine to viewers across the world. The village head of Motyzhyn near Kyiv and her family were blindfolded and shot. Mass killings of Ukrainian civilians have been reported in Bucha, which India ‘unequivocally condemned’ at the UN

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If US wants to sell us gas, it must match Russian discounts

April 5, 2022

Western governments and media have criticised India for buying Russian oil since economic sanctions are seen as the way to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. US commerce secretary Gina Raimondo said India’s action was “deeply disappointing.” She added, “Now is the time to stand on the right side of history, and to stand with the

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