Synopsis
Whom do voters blame for rising corruption? The central or state governments? They blame the central government (25%) a bit more than state governments (18%). But no less than 56% of voters say ‘both’.
Journalist Smita Gupta has travelled through 18 districts of UP to gauge the public mood in the run-up to the general election. She says, among many other things, that people complain that corruption is at an all-time high.
This seems to confirm the findings of a pre-poll survey by Centre for the Study of Developing Studies (CSDS) in collaboration with Lokniti. The CSDS-Lokniti survey asked whether corruption had increased, decreased or stayed the same in the last five years, and compared the results with a poll taken just before the 2019 elections. This was sobering.
No less than 55% of those polled said that corruption had increased in the last five years ending 2024. The corresponding figure in the pre-poll survey of 2019 was 40%, at the end of Narendra Modi‘s first term. Those surveyed seem to believe that things have got worse in his second term.
The proportion of people saying corruption had decreased was 37% in 2019. This figure has fallen to 19% in 2024. This is a disappointment for BJP. The proportion saying corruption was unchanged rose from 14% to 19%.
Corruption is as old as the hills. In most elections, accusations of corruption have little impact, since politicians of all stripes are seen by the general public as venal rascals. But, sometimes, governments are felled by a wave of public anger against corruption.
Chimanbhai Patel’s Gujarat government in 1974 was dismissed after street agitations made governance impossible. Rajiv Gandhi, who won a record 404 seats in 1984, was ousted in 1989 by rebel Congressman V P Singh, who rode the wave of national anger over the Bofors scam. Congress-led UPA was thrashed in 2014 after a series of scam accusations, principally in telecom and coal block allocations.
The anti-corruption wave of that time enabled two new faces to rise meteorically. Arvind Kejriwal, a key lieutenant in Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption agitation of 2013, launched Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) on an anti-corruption platform in Delhi state. He swept to power in the 2015 state election and again in 2020, with huge majorities. His party also won the Punjab state election in 2022.
Far more important was the rise of Narendra Modi. He promised good governance and ‘achhe din’, combining pledges of economic growth with a return to moral values. He declared, ‘Na khaunga, na khane dunga’ – I’ll neither accept bribes nor allow others to do so. This resonated with voters, who handed Modi a big victory in 2014, and an even bigger victory in 2019.
Today, the moral sheen of both these stalwarts has dimmed. Neither in Delhi state nor in the overall country do people think a moral revolution has taken place. Rather, they feel, cynically and helplessly, that their trust in moral crusaders has been naive. Many still vote for the two crusaders, feeling that others may be worse. But the initial aura of moral sainthood has gone.
The fact that Modi has no children or dynasty plays well with voters, who feel he’s not personally corrupt, no matter what other party members do. Businessmen also say you can’t ask Modi directly for any favour. But the electoral bonds revelation has given the Opposition a big drum to beat.
The Opposition claims that a few very rich businessmen have benefited in the last 10 years, greatly worsening equality. If this were true, since tycoons are urban, urban corruption should appear to have risen more than rural corruption. That is not the case. When asked whether corruption had increased, the ‘yes’ proportion was similar in villages (55%), cities (57%) and towns (53%). All three locations registered a 19% ‘no’ vote. Such surveys have a significant margin of error. So, the data should be treated with caution.
Do the rich and poor have radically different perceptions of corruption? The proportion feeling corruption has increased is 57% for the rich, and 58% for the poor, almost identical. The proportion feeling corruption has decreased is 23% for the rich and 16% for the poor. Both the rich and poor pay bribes. But bigger businesses pay much more. So, the data could be interpreted as suggesting corruption at the top decreased a bit.
Whom do voters blame for rising corruption? The central or state governments? They blame the central government (25%) a bit more than state governments (18%). But no less than 56% of voters say ‘both’. It doesn’t seem that those surveyed thought a crusading Modi was doing well at the Centre but could not rein in venal party members at the state level.
In the case of Delhi state, the survey verdict that both central and state governments are to blame for rising corruption means that voters blame both Kejriwal and Modi, the two moral crusaders 10 years ago. How little things seem to change.
This article was originally published by The Economic Times on May 7, 2024.
