Swaminomics
Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
Mystery of India’s economic growth unravelled
Oct 10th
For more than two decades, from 1980 to 2003, India’s GDP growth averaged around 6% per year. Reforms in 1990 produced no dramatic acceleration. Then, with no new policy impetus at all, GDP growth suddenly shot up after 2003 to average 8.6% in the next four years. How and why? One has heard four explanations: More >
Ambani needs to learn from Deveshwar
Oct 7th
The skills of Reliance Industries in “managing” the investment climate are legendary. Why, then, has it grossly mismanaged the political economy of its retail foray? Traditional agricultural markets have several layers of intermediaries, who prosper at the expense of the farmer and consumer. Eliminating intermediaries and linking the farmer directly to retail means the farmer More >
Cricket for the masses, not classes
Sep 30th
Cricket should be for the masses, not the classes. After India’s victory in the first Twenty20 World Cup, this version of cricket looks certain to oust Tests and one-day matches in popularity. A T20 match compresses thrills and spills into just three hours. So, it attracts the biggest possible TV audiences at prime time. Coca More >
Will rate cuts avert a recession?
Sep 26th
I am somewhat surprised that the sensex as well as other stock markets the world over have taken off after the US Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate by 0.5%, to 5.5%. Other central banks are also expected to either cut interest rates or forbear from increases which had earlier been expected. Most central More >
150-year dream for 150-year old ships
Sep 23rd
Religion and history do not mix well. I shrug my shoulders at those opposing the Sethusamunda-ram canal because it will damage the remains of the bridge that Ram’s army used in the Ramayana. Now, i too oppose the canal, but on economic and environmental grounds. Its rationale is more political than economic. It will become More >
How the reforms changed Bollywood
Sep 16th
Indian films are going though a revolution. Ram Gopal Varma ki Aag , billed as blockbuster of the year, flopped. So did earlier big-budget films such as Jhoom Barabar Jhoom and Salaam-e-Ishq . But high-quality small-budget movies have done well. A single big-budget song sequence costs Rs 2 crore, but Bheja Fry was made for More >
Recession is a probability now
Sep 12th
Journalists do not have a good reputation for predicting recessions. Indeed, they are reputed to have predicted 10 of the last three recessions. A month ago, I wrote that the US had a 33% chance of going into recession next year. Events of the last month have, in my view, increased the chances to over More >
Indian versus American hegemony
Sep 9th
The CPM threatens to bring down the government. Its main objection is not to the Indo-US nuclear deal so much as the proposed strategic partnership with the US, whom it regards as an imperialist threat to India and the whole world. Two issues arise. First, does it make sense to regard the US as imperialist More >
Don’t hate Bush, he’s India’s best friend
Sep 2nd
Indian leftists are outraged by the way Indian Ambassador to the US Ronen Sen has defended the nuclear deal with the US. The uproar has focused on Sen’s description of critics of the nuclear deal as ”headless chickens.” Sen has now apologised for his language. But surely this is not the key issue. Prakash Karat, More >
Markets slump and inequality
Aug 29th
The slump in global stock markets since July has wiped out an estimated $5 trillion of wealth, five times the GDP of India. So, world inequality has fallen dramatically. Are poor people across the world celebrating the great reduction of global inequalities? Are socialists celebrating increased equality ? No, not at all. But why not? More >
Relax, Mr Karat: 123 is a non-starter
Aug 26th
Even if the US converts the 123 agreement into law, no US supplier will look at India until it passes a liability protection law. Since the Congress-led coalition lacks a majority, it cannot pass any legislation without your support. By refusing to support legislation on liability protection, you can ensure that the agreement is not More >
Our greatest achievement: longer lives
Aug 19th
The 60th anniversary of indepen-dence launched a thousand colum-ns on the achievements and failur-es of the last six decades. Some extolled our democracy and rise as an IT power. Others bemoaned the collapse of governance and appalling lack of basic services in rural India. I personally opined that we could give one-and-a-half cheers but not More >
Freedom, won by himsa or ahimsa?
Aug 15th
We are celebrating, simultaneously, the 60th anniversary of Independence and 150th anniversary of the 1857 mutiny against British rule. Some historians and most politicians call the mutiny the first war of independence. This is a dubious proposition. The concept of nationhood did not exist in India at the time. We now pretend that nations have More >
Will the housing bubble burst hit India?
Aug 12th
The sub-prime problem may not be a big deal in itself. But it’s a symptom of a bigger problem in the real economy: the bursting of the US housing bubble… The US is not the only market with a housing bubble: bigger bubbles can be seen in other countries, notably Britain. The main danger ahead More >
Financial hurricane from the US
Aug 5th
Ten years ago, the Asian financial crisis sma-shed markets and economies globally. Today, another financial crisis is brewing in the US mortgage market. Is this a small problem that will soon be resolved? Is it a serious problem that will hit financial markets but not sink entire economies? Or is it a disaster that will More >
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