Swaminomics
Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
Free Trade Area or yuan trap?
Nov 26th
During the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao last week, there was much loose talk (but no decision) regarding an India- China Free Trade Area (FTA). This is a terrible idea that must be aborted. The most important reason is that free trade with China will be illusory until it stops rigging its currency, the More >
Inevitable battle for job quotas
Nov 18th
India is firmly in the grip of vote-bank politics. So, the clamour for job reservations for scheduled castes and tribes in the private sector will grow as we approach the state election in Uttar Pradesh next March. The clamour will be couched in the language of social justice, but will be largely about winning a More >
Plausible hypotheses are not scientific facts
Nov 11th
Traditional sceptics on global warming are becoming believers. Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth” has convinced many waverers. The Stern report in Britain has just called for urgent action to check global warming. So, the current UN conference on climate change is putting unprecedented pressure on the US to join the Kyoto Protocol on reducing More >
How non-reform hits human development
Nov 11th
The UN Human Development Report 2006 paints a dismal picture of social development in India, which ranks just 126th out of 177 countries. We must be cautious about glowing predictions that India will soon become a global economic superpower. Without stronger social development, the current spurt in economic growth will falter. India presents a paradox. More >
The squeeze on the middle
Nov 5th
Globalisation has for the first time in history made poverty an advantage. It obliges companies to search the globe for ways to cut costs. The lower the wages in any country, the more competitive production there is, other things equal. Of course, such a country will have to create a good investment climate, infrastructure and More >
The Nobel Prize mix-up
Oct 29th
I am delighted that the pioneer of microfinance, Mohammed Yunus of Grameen Bank, has won the Nobel Prize. Disclosure norms oblige me to report that I have co-promoted two microfinance institutions, Arohan in Calcutta and Sonata in Allahabad. So I am biased in Yunus’ favour. But I am puzzled that he got the Nobel Prize More >
Misfortune at Bottom of Pyramid
Oct 28th
Management guru CK Prahlad is famous for his book “The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Eradicating Poverty Through Profits.” This shows that the poor, often neglected by corporations as having no purchasing power, can be converted into the fastest-growing market in the world through innovations that improve affordability and tailor products to the More >
GDP growing at 13.4% in dollars
Oct 28th
Three years ago, I thought Indian economy was trapped in a neo-Hindu growth rate of around 6 % per year. I was wrong. Growth has averaged 8% in the last three years, and looks set to hit that level again this year. This is partly due to the extremely buoyant conditions in the world economy, More >
Don’t ban iron ore exports
Oct 10th
Should iron ore exports be banned? No. Should an export tax be levied on iron ore? No. Should the royalty on ore be raised? Yes, hugely. Should iron ore exploration be opened to the private sector and FDI? Absolutely? Should ore deposits be allotted or auctioned? Auctioned, of course. Should auctions be waived and allotments More >
Global finance for Indian takeovers
Oct 8th
Critics of globalisation have long claimed that the West controls the world financial system and uses this to help Western multinationals to dominate the world. Think again. In the first nine months of 2006, Indian companies have made foreign acquisitions worth a whopping $ 7.6 billion, and the money for these acquisitions has come substantially More >
The Shia-Sunni battle for oil
Oct 1st
Some conspiracy theorists will have you believe that everything in the Middle East is about oil, including the US invasion of Iraq. But the fact is that, three years after the invasion, the Americans have not acquired any Iraqi oilfield. Yet in one sense the hundreds of weekly killings in Iraq are indeed about oil. More >
One and a half cheers for police reform
Sep 27th
For decades, I have argued that police independence and reform are crucial for governance. Public order is intrinsically political and must be handled by the Home minister. But crime detection and prosecution should not be political, and should be done by an agency independent of the government. This will end the current criminalisation of politics, More >
Laloo Yadav’s demographic dividend
Sep 24th
Laloo Yadav, who as Chief Minister presided over 15 years of economic and social stagnation in Bihar, is suddenly being lionised as a management guru. As Railway Minister, has transformed Railway finances and performance. The middle class remains shocked that Laloo has fathered nine children, worsening the population explosion (viewed by this class as one More >
Eat now, or wait for the cease-fire?
Sep 13th
Politically, the world changed irrevocably on 9/11. Yet from an economic viewpoint 9/11 could be called the day when hardly anything changed. Predictions of economic apocalypse proved laughable wrong. India is averaging 8% GDP growth for the fourth year in a row. The world economy has also experienced a phenomenal boom, enabling even sub-Saharan Africa More >
How not to Displace People
Sep 6th
Industrialisation has displaced millions of people and spawned terrible rehabilitation failures. Fresh in public memory is the death of 13 tribals at Kalinganagar, Orissa, resisting displacement by Tata Steel. The problem will worsen as industrialisation deepens. Recently 150 Special Economic Zones have been approved, and the number may soon double. Maybe one million people will More >
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