Swaminomics
Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
Gas pricing must be determined by market bids, not government committees
Jul 17th
A Committee of Ministers fixed the price of natural gas in 2009-14 at $4.2/unit. The Rangarajan Committee has suggested a new pricing formula, accepted by the government, that from 2014 could raise the price to $8.4/unit (though the petroleum minister thinks it will be closer to $ 6.8/unit). Those favouring the change say it is More >
Without quick justice, politics will stay criminalized
Jul 14th
Most people are so outraged by the rising tide of criminals in politics that they will welcome the two latest Supreme Court judgments. One bans any convicted person from contesting elections even if the person has appealed to a higher court. The second bans anybody contesting from jail, even if only in temporary police custody More >
Rising rural wage may boost UPA’s chances
Jul 7th
For all the current gloom about the economy, the 2011-12 data on employment and consumption shows a remarkable one-third increase in average household consumption over two years, well above the rate of inflation. This will fuel Congress hopes to fare better in the 2014 election than opinion polls suggest. Four trends stand out. First, poverty More >
Kerala debate: It’s crime data does tell a grim story
Jul 3rd
A fortnight ago, I wrote that Kerala, contrary to its reputation, was not a welfarist socialist paradise with low crime and excellent treatment of women. In fact, its development model had used globalisation and private provision of education to achieve rapid GDP growth, along with associated inequality and rising crime. The column attracted a storm More >
Demographic dividend: delayed, but getting better
Jun 30th
The latest employment data for 2011-12 show that India’s much-hyped demographic dividend has not yet arrived. The proportion of workers in the population rose slightly from 40% in 1980 to 43% in 2004-05, but is now down again to 40%. This is actually good news. It means that the record GDP growth of the 2000s More >
Bad regulation is our biggest public scam
Jun 23rd
Losses imposed by bad policies can be enormous, yet they catch the attention of TV anchors and the public only when a huge number is put on the losses (as in the 2G spectrum and coal blocks cases). The numbers in these cases later turned out to be greatly exaggerated, but nevertheless helped focus public More >
Kerala’s riches & rapes: One of India’s most progressive states, but crime data shockingly bad
Jun 19th
Kerala is supposed to be a socialist paradise with the best social and gender indicators, frowning on economic growth and globalisation. But a look at the latest crime data suggests that even Kerala’s image as a civilised paradise for women is much exaggerated. Of all states, Kerala has the highest crime rate of 455.8 per More >
Waiting for a hundred dalit billionaires
Jun 16th
On June 6, a new venture capital fund was launched by the Dalit Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DICCI) to raise Rs 500 crore from investors for investment in companies run by dalits and tribals. Let goody-goody piece of affirmative action. The fund aims to provide investors with a commercial 25% pre-tax internal rate More >
How to reduce our rotting mountains of grain
Jun 9th
India’s GDP growth has almost halved from 9.2% in 2010-11 to 5% in 2012-12. Major problems include a high current account deficit, high fiscal deficit, and lack of bank credit for small and medium enterprises. All three problems can be mitigated substantially by one single measure — reducing excess food stocks. So say Ashok Gulati and More >
Big trade deficit with China? Excellent!
Jun 2nd
China is India’s largest trade partner. But India runs a large trade deficit of $29 billion with China. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reportedly told his Chinese counterpart, Li Keqiang, at their recent meeting that this “needs to be addressed.” But as an economist he surely knows it is wrong to aim for balanced trade with More >
Legalize betting, make cricket cleaner and whiter
May 26th
The cricket spot fixing scam in the India Premier League (IPL) has become a media sensation. Bollywood actors, cricketing stars, bookies, highly connected gamblers, underworld dons and even a Pakistani umpire have added masala to an already spicy scandal. Outraged analysts are demanding a crackdown on all betting, the jailing of not just the fixers More >
Amartya Sen wrong in his claim that delay in Food Bill killing a thousand every week
May 22nd
Amartya Sen, as befits a Nobel laureate, has often produced careful calculations to throw light on dark situations, such as the number of deaths caused by Mao’s Great Leap Forward in China. So, it was astonishing to hear him say on a recent TV programme that the delay in passing the Food Security Bill was More >
Evolving out of inefficient corruption
May 19th
Why did economic growth collapse from 9.3% in 2010-11 to just five per cent last year? Because, says Chief Economic Advisor Raghuram Rajan, India’s institutions have been unable to cope with the consequences of fast growth. Land acquisition, forest clearance and environmental clearance were manageable when the economy was smaller and growth was slower. But More >
Fast growth will save lives not the Food Security Bill
May 12th
Amartya Sen wants to estimate the number of deaths caused by the delay in passing the Food Security Bill. He thinks this may shame Opposition politicians into ceasing disruption of proceedings in the Lok Sabha. “To capture people’s attention, you have to have a number,” he says. Fine, but let’s hope Sen will also estimate More >
Govt, India Inc must take advantage of ultra-cheap Western and Japanese money
May 8th
India’s current account deficit was a record 6.7% of GDP in the last quarter of 2012. The deficit was plugged mainly by foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment and NRI bank deposits. But a significant, rising contribution also came from foreign borrowing, by corporations and the government. Total foreign debt is now estimated at almost More >
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