Swaminomics
Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
Indians haven’t learnt to think strategically in terms of foreign policy
May 9th
The late K Subrahmanyam, celebrated defence analyst, said the Indian government seemed incapable of strategic thinking. Perhaps intellectuals outside the government are no better. This has to be the verdict on an ambitious attempt by some of India’s finest thinkers, backed by the National Defence College and Centre for Policy Research , to enunciate a More >
Brain drain or not, the right to emigrate is fundamental
May 6th
Socialists like health minister Ghulam Nabi Azad won’t admit it, but they rather liked the Berlin Wall. They think it’s morally right to keep citizens captive at home, unable to migrate for better prospects. Azad has proposed not a brick wall but a financial one: he wants all doctors going to the US for higher More >
June is the right time for tough reforms
Apr 29th
Policy paralysis has costs. Standard and Poor’s has cut India’s credit outlook to negative and warned of a one-in-three chance of a downgrade to junk status within the next 24 months. S&P cites the slowing economy, deteriorating balance of payments and out-of-control fiscal deficits. India’s problems are eminently solvable. But the government is so lacking More >
Right to Education Act threatens education
Apr 25th
In analysing the Supreme Court judgment upholding the Right to Education (RTE) Act, television channels have focused too much on the 25% reservation of seats in private schools – including famous elite schools – for low-income children. This minor social engineering has produced some ridiculous protests from the elite. Yet, equally ridiculous is the claim More >
Should India stop paying attention to the BRICS group, a sinking ship?
Apr 22nd
India has just a 50% chance of becoming a breakout nation (exceeding expectations of 7% GDP growth) in coming years. So says Morgan Stanley honcho Ruchir Sharma in a fascinating new book, Breakout Nations. There is no better book for country-by-country accounts of emerging markets (and riskier ones called frontier markets). Its strong point is More >
Making a breakout nation
Apr 22nd
India has just a 50% chance of becoming a breakout nation (exceeding expectations of 7% GDP growth) in coming years. So says Morgan Stanley honcho Ruchir Sharma in a fascinating new book, Breakout Nations. There is no better book for country-by-country accounts of emerging markets (and riskier ones called frontier markets). Its strong point is More >
Why India will beat China
Apr 11th
Extractive political institutions (autocracy and empire) lead to extractive economies benefiting elites, and cannot create general prosperity save for limited periods. Inclusive political institutions (democracy, rule of law and rights for all) create inclusive economic regimes with opportunity for all, leading ultimately to prosperity. Inclusive institutions lead to creative destruction, which is essential for sustained More >
Supreme court says auction natural resources. Water too?
Apr 8th
Most political parties and media have passionately supported the Supreme Court ruling in the 2G spectrum case, that the government should auction natural resources and not allot them or allow unregulated extraction (as in iron ore mining). The Comptroller and Auditor General has fuelled this public passion by estimating huge losses to the exchequer through More >
Coalgate: what about losses caused by Left Front?
Apr 1st
The comptroller and auditor general has estimated that the government lost Rs 10.7 lakh crore by allotting coal blocks in 2004-09 instead of auctioning them. The government has contested the estimate as well as methodology of the CAG, and says allocations were normal practice for decades. The CAG has admitted that its estimate is very More >
Rapid GDP growth- best antidote for poverty
Mar 28th
Rapid GDP growth is the best antidote for poverty. That is the big message that comes blaring out of the poverty data for 2009-10. Record GDP growth of 8.5% per year between 2004-05 and 2009-10 has reduced poverty at a record rate of 1.5 percentage points per year, double the 0.7 percentage points per year More >
Poverty has truly fallen: it’s no statistical fudge
Mar 25th
The government is corrupt and incompetent. People are, quite rightly, sceptical of its integrity. But it has not fudged the poverty data to exaggerate the fall in poverty, as alleged by innumerable politicians and TV anchors. I have long criticized government statistics as too often being misleading or plain wrong. But those critics of Montek More >
Fertilizer bungle: real reason for Maya’s defeat
Mar 18th
Most political pundits have explained the Uttar Pradesh assembly election results in sectarian terms. They say Mayawati’s BSP lost Muslim voters to the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Brahmins to the Congress and BJP. However , this is mere speculation. We have no hard data on shifts in community voting patterns. Even a new survey of More >
Akalis have shown that a bankrupt state can win elections, but is this sustainable? Probably not
Mar 14th
Manpreet Badal, former Punjab finance minister and nephew of chief minister P S Badal, broke last year with the Akali Dal, complaining that his entreaties for fiscal discipline were being ignored, and would lead to disaster. He looks foolish today after the re-election of the Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party combine. However, the Akali victory was More >
Will fear of early LS poll induce an election budget?
Mar 11th
The state election results surprised many. This column predicted that in 60% of states, incumbents that accelerated GDP growth would win. That model proved right in Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand – 60% of cases! The prediction for Uttarakhand was that the BJP would lose, and it has certainly lost seats and dropped to no. 2. More >
State elections: Four incumbents may win and one lose
Mar 4th
After over a month of suspense, the counting of votes will begin in two days for the elections to five state assemblies. Predicting elections is a mug’s game, especially in four-cornered contests of the sort witnessed in Uttar Pradesh. Anybody who gets his predictions right will be more lucky than wise. The usual journalistic way More >
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